Picks and Hits #3

Harpy is back with another edition of PICKS AND HITS. We got a lot of deciding factors at play for this upcoming UGP Boss Fight 4. I know the last time I did these I had a little fun and made a little fun of the fights overall. Wasn’t making light of the situations and those that felt that way because certain champions are soft I will be hitting these hard with the analytical view I’m known for. So let's not waste any further time we got the picks and then the hits with my personal rankings as of post-UGP 5.

LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT #10 Amedea Rao (0-3) VS Saffron Harris (0-0)

Why? In most cases, the newcomers are the ones with the odds stacked against them. They are being welcomed in with seasoned players on most of this card but here I feel the THRONE MMA fighter in Saffron Harris is anything but that kind of newcomer. THRONE isn’t known to throwing just anyone out there if they are not ready. Harris will be the different cases from how I see the trend to normally go. An example of that was Kaelan Laughlin vs Gina Vanzant. Now good on Vanzant for stepping in while others ran from the challenge but she wasn’t ready for that caliber of fighter in my honest opinion.

But back to the point being made here, Rao has shown an increase between her first loss against Hailey McIntyre to her loss against Xabier Belazco. Thing is here is Rao looks to be a stereotypical Jack of All Trades yet a master of none kind of deal. That’s a good thing against someone who is just like her. A fight of overall balance in skills. Thing is Harris from what I’ve seen of her isn’t that kind of fighter. I think she will be able to stand and bang with Rao but once this fight goes to the ground (and I believe it will) that is where the Jack of All Trades tendency will melt for Shatterstar. I believe the BJJ skills of Harris will shine harder in that field and may very well be where the fight ends. Harris to upset the #10 ranked Amedea Rao.

LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT #5 Lauren Moore (1-1) VS Delaney Donovan (0-0)

Why? We have ourselves another introduction this one in the form of Lauren Moore vs Delaney Donovan. This one a true clash of styles with the Wrestling of Moore against the Muay Thai of Donovan. This is going to go one of two ways. Standing battle that Double D dominates or the ground game that L-Mo dominates. Now as they say all battles start on the feet. That doesn’t bode well for Moore but doesn’t put her completely at an out. She has the peak ability to control the fight and bring it where she wants to be as evidenced to her split decision loss with the eventual Lightweight Champion Jordan-Parker Kane.

I will be the first to tell you I am new to Double D and it may be swaying my thoughts as I am getting introduced to him just as much as the rest of you will be on fight night. That said I think the battle will be formidable. You aren’t a Muay Thai fighter and not be able to hit your target. I do believe this will go the way of the trend with the more experienced fighter earning the edge in the bout. L-Mo bringing it to the ground and taking control from there.

HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT Amani Crawford (0-0) VS Brock Quarry (0-0)

Why? WE GOT HEAVYS! WE GOT HEAVYS! From Bobbi London and Damiko Conrad to this fight. Excited to see more heavyweights bursting onto the scene. After Derrick La’Bell dethroning Ferdinand Diao from the Heavyweight Title and seemly from Union GP, in general, there were questions in my mind about who would step up and make a claim or at the very least show their face. Enter these two new beasts into the octagon. It will be a pleasure to see them both start their Union GP careers.

Amani Crawford and Brock Quarry are both admittedly unknown to me although with Crawford training at the UGP Institute and Quarry coming from HILITE FC I do expect quality to come from both fighters. Now due to my unknown knowledge of both this will be a coin flip I can only analyze when I see what to analyze. Workout videos show that Crawford will be the bigger guy with a little more ground ability. Thing is these Heavyweight battles have seemed to go the way of ko or ground and pound. We’ve yet to even see a submission win. Maybe this is where the tide changes. I take a lot at all aspects from the feet to the floor. Quarry is a lot more well rounded overall. That might place him in a position to never get THAT uncomfortable. The penny said heads. Quarry with a win but something tells me this one will go quick.

CRUISERWEIGHT BOUT #3 Viktor Volkov (1-1) VS #6 Mad Maxine (0-2)

Why? I want to do an extended look but honestly, I have to think with the way Maxine has succumbed twice from people with power and Volkov has won quite a few Harpie awards from that knockout power of his it’s honestly simple. Volkov will hit Maxine and more than likely Maxine will go boom to the mat. No matter which why I line things up that is just the way I see it.

LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT #4 Kenzi Grey (1-2) VS Zari Aliyah (0-0)

Why? Another Union GP introduction. We have Kenzi Grey vs Zari Aliyah. Now here is where I once again wonder will it be the trend of the newcomer unable to overcome the odds or will it go the way of the surprise surprise? Unlike some of the new fighters in the fold, there’s the background on Zari Aliyah. Example being her WTC 2017 Gold Medal run. So let us get to the point of it all.

Kenzi is a quality ground game she’s shown that in her last two fights even with the still shocking loss to Hailey McIntyre. That being said the trend of getting to a decision might not be the way to go in this one and the only reason I said that is Zari’s kicks are not ‘decision winning’ battles. They are massive, they are powerful, and they are painful. I saw her drop a woman in the quarterfinals of the WTC to the point where medics were needed. So unless Kenzi is able to control the floor Zari Aliyah is not like these other newcomers she does have experience in this field we all enjoy. I’m going to give Kenzi the 51% to 49% here and that’s because I know she’s going to have the fire in her veins because of her last controversial loss BUT if this turns into a standup bout...I won’t be surprised to see it go Aliyah’s way. This is one of the many ranked vs unranked bouts of the night but this will be the most competitive one in my opinion.

LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT #1 Hanako Takeuchi (2-1) VS Ellis Belrose (0-0)

Why? Hanako Takeuchi looking to bounce back after her finals loss against Champion Jordan Parker-Kane. A lot of people are saying it’s only a matter of time before Jordan is dethroned. Hanako being one of the names constantly said in that process. That said what she faces now is a newcomer looking to make an impression and I think we all will agree Ellis Belrose would be upset of the night if she’s able to knock off one of the Lightweight’s household names.

I’ll be the first to tell you Capoeira is tricky. It’s a very tricky fighting style to counter and otherwise battle. Timing and all of that is completely put to waste with the movement of the fighter. Where it gets interesting is Takeuchi is one of the best in the division standing and banging. Ellis Belrose is from THRONE MMA, again as I said with Saffron Harris no one is leaving that gym until they are prepared. That’s to their credit I assure you. The thing we all saw when it came to the Takeuchi fight is the ground game isn’t the fun place for her. She manages sure but it isn’t her bread and butter and Parker-Kane took advantage of that fact. Ellis may want to prove something standing with Takeuchi or maybe she will play to the mold and bring her to the floor. I think there will be moments where Belrose will stick to that mold but with her own standing being dangerous as well she will try to fight fire with fire...Takeuchi will make her pay the moment she does that. It will be that lesson debut for Belrose. A good fighter but like the way of Vanzant, a little too much too early in the career.

HEADLINE MIDDLEWEIGHT BOUT #1 Edan McLeod (2-0) VS #2 Robert Guilliman (2-0)

Why? Now let's talk about this fight of the night ladies and gentlemen. Because that is exactly what this will be. The obvious decider in who will step up to become Middleweight Champion Cristian Bonanno's first defense challenger. Both men are undefeated and both men are every bit of dangerous if they are to come face to face with Uccisore.

Now the meat and potatoes of it. Two predominantly stand up bangers are going for the hunt. Now, where does the multi-performance of the night winner McLeod size up against another highly touted fighter in his division? I'll admit I expected McLeod to struggle a lot more against Jeremiah Ford. Not only did McLeod win but he did so handily. Honestly, McLeod dominated Ford better than Bonanno did in his path to win the title. I believe McLeod proved himself to be a lot more formidable than anyone thought in that one fight. That's the downside for Guilliman to me. He's fought and fought extremely well but the caliber of opponents in comparison is not yet as high. That's just something I note mentally between them because as always any Saturday night, anything can happen. Ford attempted to match with McLeod on the feet and couldn't. Guilliman actually can meet the match of McLeod standing. The question is will he? The short answer to me...no. He will battle. He will give McLeod fits but I do believe McLeod gets by in a split decision type closeness.

MAIN EVENT CRUISERWEIGHT BOUT #1 Roscoe Robinson (2-1) VS #2 Nathan Lucas (2-1)

Why? And in our Main Event, the other number one contender honor on the line. This one in the Cruiserweight division Roscoe Robinson and Nathan Lucas will fight for the chance at Champion Daniel Fisk. As Union GP expands so does the playing field with many divisions the decisions are being made in the best way, inside the cage. Robinson lost to Seth Daniels in the Cruiserweight tournament and Lucas to eventual winner and Champion Fisk. Let's talk about how I see it.

One thing I have to note that I believe was well exposed in Robinson's loss. You take away his aggression he struggles. That probably comes from his young time as a professional learning when and where to turn it up. Now the exposed note in Lucas’ loss, he is not for that aggressive nature in any form. He likes to get in there and comfortable with your timing. Fisk came in like a bull and it proved to be a problem for him. How do these things come together...Roscoe's aggression and he keeps light on his feet will damage Lucas gameplan. Yet if Lucas can time it all right, the young star could end up replaying his loss in a similar fashion then get caught. How do I see it? Roscoe gets that one good kick and the arena jumps to their feet.

Now my rankings post UGP 5.

THE HITS

The Lightweight division I’ll admit was a hard road only because at this point you want people at the top that deserve a shot at Champion JPK. That said those that had the shot should be adjusted to match them having an opportunity and I tried to show that in his line of rankings. There’s also the fact with Hailey McIntyre’s loss who should be that very next up. Enter Kaelan Laughlin.

Standing at 2-1 she is the only one left with that record who hasn’t had a shot at JPK. Hanako was in the final but I still give credit due with having her at 3 with her record and of course depending on Boss Fight result she still, in my opinion, deserves a crack at it. Yes, I do have Kenzi Gray above McIntyre even with the result of their fight known. Reason being as I said new blood needs to have a shot. McIntyre lost to JPK the build back in a big division is a long one. Lauren Moore and Xabier Belazco are in similar fields I believe. Still needing to show just that little more hmph to be in the contending conversations. I wouldn’t doubt they are hungry to climb. 9-13 are basically our ‘lets see’ pool. Don’t take the placements seriously it’s honestly lining up the 0-0’s and saying let's see what you got. I would place you unranked but the rankings demand placement and as I said before I place the 0-0’s in the middle range. Which leads to the bottom of those who are winless. Might be harsh but hey that octagon is not forgiving and neither am I. Two are still starting and Rao has a long way to go. Might be even longer if it goes the way I see at Boss Fight 4.

This one is easy and with the upcoming Boss Fight the decisions get easier. It will be either Edan McLeod or Robert Guilliman and I can’t wait to find out. From there, of course, Jeremiah Ford drops a bit between the loss to Champion Cristian Bonanno and then McLeod. Yes even with the draw I have Simon Bishop above Sang-Hyun Lee. Why? That was Lee’s fight to win and his own actions, unfortunately, cost him. You have to take a W to make me adjust you. That said if Bishop continues fighting that lackadaisical he will end up being a victim of a more seasoned fighter than Lee. Aries Reed I honestly thought about bumping him over both Bishop and Lee just due to his performance but there’s a part of me that feels more needs to be seen from him before I make that move. The only unknown in this division is one that’s known. I know he’s due to debut sometime this month all Union GP fans are looking forward to it. Rounding out the bottom Adegoke Muller and Kira Izumi. Poor Kira.

Another division with a little more clarity on who is next. It will be either Nathan Lucas or Roscoe Robinson. They will be coming for each other to decide who comes for Daniel Fisk. Boss Fight 4 with so many high stakes fights you don’t want to miss. Of course Seth Daniels with his loss bumps down still able to redeem. Now the dark horse for me of this division is Jakko Wirman. I don’t see many people looking for him but they should or better yet in time they will. Viktor Volkov will make a claim with a win against Mad Maxine. After that all the winless in order of their losses. KVD might not renew from what I heard, just a rumor mill.

Thank God for newcomers or this division would have been in trouble. La’Bell getting rid of the previous champion and now with a new day in the Heavyweight division what we can do is giving credit to those bouncing back and give the newbies something to aspire to. I have Shotgun over Calabrese honestly because I felt his performances over the last 4 fights have been stronger. Nothing really more than that and if they need that decider between the two for number one contendership I’d be all for it. One person that could dampen that parade though is Bobbi London. She’s the only undefeated one in the division at 1-0 so if she continued that trend who can honestly dispute. We will see what Amani Crawford and Brock Quarry are made of and from there Damiko Conrad rounds out the bottom.

As always anger and opinions find me at @HarperTUGP. Make sure to catch Boss Fight 4 on December 8.